3GPP Faces June Deadline to Set 6G Specification Timeline as Industry Splits Over AI-Native Ambitions and Security Demands
The 3GPP standards body must decide by June 2026 how long Release 21 work will take, a decision that will set the pace for the first commercial 6G networks expected around 2030.
Overview
The global telecommunications industry is approaching a pivotal moment for sixth-generation wireless standards. The 3rd Generation Partnership Project must decide by June 2026 how long its Release 21 specification work will take, a decision that will determine when chipmakers can begin prototyping 6G hardware and when the first commercial networks could go live. The deadline arrives as chip manufacturers push competing visions of AI-embedded networks, a coalition of Western governments demands that security be designed in from the start, and operators worldwide are pulling back on infrastructure spending after years of heavy 5G investment.
What We Know
Release 21 is the 3GPP milestone expected to contain the first official 6G specifications. The study phase running since September 2024 is set to conclude in June 2026, at which point the organization must fix the duration of the formal specification work. Industry consensus places the completion of usable specifications around 2028, with first commercial 6G deployments targeted for 2030.
Two of the largest semiconductor companies have staked out positions on what 6G should become. At Mobile World Congress in Barcelona in March 2026, NVIDIA announced a coalition with BT Group, Cisco, Deutsche Telekom, Ericsson, Nokia, SK Telecom, T-Mobile, and others committed to building next-generation wireless networks on what the companies call “AI-native, open, secure and trustworthy” software-defined platforms. NVIDIA’s vision centers on AI-RAN architecture, where networks “continuously evolve through software, enabling real-time intelligence and rapid advancement” rather than requiring constant hardware replacement cycles.
Qualcomm outlined a parallel but distinct roadmap at the same event, describing an AI-native 6G system built on three pillars: connectivity, wide-area sensing, and high-performance compute. The company targets 2028 for the development of essential standards and demonstration of spec-compliant pre-commercial devices, followed by initial commercial rollouts in 2029. As The Register noted, neither the International Telecommunication Union nor 3GPP has finalized technical specifications for commercial 6G systems, leaving the precise meaning of “AI-native” open to interpretation.
Separately, a coalition of seven Western governments unveiled 6G Security and Resilience Principles at Mobile World Congress. The Global Coalition on Telecoms, comprising the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Australia, Sweden, and Finland, is attempting to shape security requirements before 6G networks are built, a departure from the 5G era when governments scrambled to address vendor risks after networks were already operational. The principles emphasize quantum-resistant cryptography, stronger authentication mechanisms, and network architectures designed to contain breaches rather than allow lateral movement. Companies including Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung, BT, and Vodafone voiced support for the initiative, though the principles carry no mandatory enforcement mechanisms.
The push toward 6G comes against a backdrop of declining infrastructure investment. According to Dell’Oro Group, worldwide telecom capital expenditure is projected to fall two percent in 2026 and grow at only a one percent compound annual growth rate through 2030. Wireless capital intensity is expected to decline to approximately 11 percent by 2029, down seven percentage points from its 5G peak. Stefan Pongratz, vice president at Dell’Oro Group, characterized the situation as an “interesting dynamic between long-term optimism and near-term visibility,” noting that operators are moderating spending despite acknowledging that AI-driven demand will eventually require network upgrades.
This follows earlier reporting by The Machine Herald on the Pentagon-backed OCUDU initiative to build an open-source radio access network stack, one of several efforts to reshape the vendor landscape ahead of 6G.
What We Don’t Know
The June 2026 decision will reveal how ambitious 3GPP members believe Release 21 should be, but the organization has not disclosed how the study-phase results are trending or whether member companies have reached consensus on the scope of initial specifications. The question of whether sub-terahertz frequencies will play a significant role in early 6G deployments remains unresolved, with some industry participants favoring a more conservative evolution from existing sub-6 GHz and upper mid-band spectrum.
It is also unclear how the Western security coalition’s principles will be translated into binding technical requirements within the 3GPP process, or whether countries outside the coalition will adopt compatible approaches. The non-binding nature of the current principles leaves open the possibility of fragmented security standards across regions.
Finally, while chipmakers project pre-commercial 6G demonstrations by 2028, the capex environment suggests operators may be slow to invest in early deployments, potentially widening the gap between specification completion and widespread commercial availability.