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Historic Heat Wave Pushes PJM Grid to the Brink of a 20-Year Demand Record, Prompting Emergency DOE Orders

A brutal early-July heat wave pushed PJM's forecast demand to 166.3 GW, threatening the grid's 165,563 MW record from 2006, as DOE ordered emergency fossil-fuel dispatch and data-center curtailment.

Energy & Climate Grid Infrastructure
PJM grid heat wave electricity demand Department of Energy data centers
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Editor's Note ·

Correction:
The article states, "PJM, which delivers power to 67 million people across 13 states and Washington, D.C., forecast that Thursday evening demand would exceed its 2006 record of 165,563 megawatts, according to Utility Dive." The cited Utility Dive article does not contain a population or state-count figure anywhere in its text — it reports only the 165,563 MW 2006 record and the DOE order details. The 13-states-plus-D.C. territory description and the approximately 65-67 million population figure are accurate and independently verifiable through PJM's own materials, but the citation to Utility Dive for this specific figure is incorrect.

Overview

An early-July heat wave pushed electricity demand on PJM Interconnection, the nation’s largest grid operator, to within reach of a 20-year-old record, according to Reuters. Demand on the 13-state grid topped 160 gigawatts on Wednesday, July 1, and was forecast to hit 166.3 gigawatts around 6 p.m. EDT on Thursday, July 2 — enough to break PJM’s all-time record of roughly 165.5 gigawatts set in 2006, according to Reuters. The U.S. Department of Energy responded by ordering PJM to dispatch emergency generation and, if needed as a last resort, curtail large data centers with backup power, according to the Department of Energy.

What We Know

  • PJM, which delivers power to 67 million people across 13 states and Washington, D.C., forecast that Thursday evening demand would exceed its 2006 record of 165,563 megawatts, according to Utility Dive.
  • Spot wholesale electricity prices in PJM’s Virginia zone surged past $600 per megawatt hour on Wednesday afternoon as the heat wave intensified, according to Reuters.
  • Coal-fired generation supplied up to 22% of PJM’s electricity that week, with output approaching 28 gigawatts — about 75% higher than PJM’s average generation from coal so far in 2026, according to Reuters.
  • PJM reported having 18 gigawatts of reserve power resources that could be brought online within 30 minutes to meet unexpected shortages, according to Reuters.
  • The heat wave also threatened a separate record on the Midcontinent Independent System Operator’s grid, where forecasters said the existing demand record of 127.1 gigawatts could fall, according to Reuters.
  • Energy Secretary Chris Wright signed emergency orders under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act after PJM submitted applications on June 27 and June 29, according to the Department of Energy. The first order, numbered 202-26-32, directed PJM to dispatch specified generating units and order their operation as needed to maintain reliability, according to DOE’s order docket. A second order authorized PJM to direct backup generation resources to operate as a last resort before, or during, a top-tier Energy Emergency Alert, according to the Department of Energy.
  • “Maintaining affordable, reliable, and secure power in the PJM service territory is non-negotiable,” Wright said, according to the Department of Energy.
  • The orders authorized PJM to direct transmission owners, “if required as a last resort prior to voltage reduction or load shed, to curtail data centers and other large loads that have backup generation,” according to Utility Dive.
  • Because dispatching the additional generation risked conflicting with environmental rules, Wright said he was “authorizing only the necessary additional generation on the conditions contained in this Order,” according to Utility Dive.
  • The original order, effective from 11:59 p.m. EDT on June 30 through 11:59 p.m. EDT on July 3, was later extended as Order No. 202-26-32A, effective upon issuance on July 2 through 11:59 p.m. EDT on July 6, according to DOE’s order docket.
  • Neighboring grid operators also braced for records: the New York Independent System Operator forecast a Thursday peak of 32,410 megawatts, and ISO New England forecast 25,850 megawatts around 7 p.m., according to Utility Dive.
  • Forecast heat indices reached as high as 115 degrees Fahrenheit across the region, and roughly 167,000 power outages were reported nationwide on Tuesday night alone, according to Utility Dive.

What We Don’t Know

  • Because demand-response programs — which pay large customers to cut usage during emergencies — reduce PJM’s measured real-time load, the grid operator’s fully verified, official peak-demand figure for the event was not available at the time of the DOE orders, and neither Reuters nor Utility Dive reported a final, confirmed post-event peak figure.
  • It is not established from these sources how much of PJM’s actual generation during the peak came from renewable sources versus fossil fuels; PJM’s own forecasts and the DOE orders focused on fossil-fuel dispatch and backup generation rather than renewable output.

Analysis

The emergency stems from a broader structural shift already underway on PJM’s system. As previously reported by The Machine Herald, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission voted on June 18 to order PJM and five other regional grid operators to justify or rewrite the rules governing how large electricity users — chiefly data centers — connect to the transmission system, citing a surge in demand that is reversing years of flat electricity growth. The DOE’s decision to authorize PJM to curtail data centers with backup generation as a last resort during this heat wave, rather than residential or commercial customers first, reflects that same tension between rapidly growing large-load demand and a grid still built for an earlier era of flatter consumption.